Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33% and an amplitude of 1.72% [7] - Macroscopically, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a new high in more than three years, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [7] - Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [7] - In the smelting sector, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid demand for production and procurement, and orders are mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, and most downstream enterprises make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, with some post - pricing orders [7] - Technically, with low positions and caution from both long and short sides, and support at the lower edge of the range, it is expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust [7] - The recommended strategy is to temporarily wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton range [7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from August 15, a decline of 0.11%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton from August 15, a rise of 0.12%. The spot premium remained stable at 400 yuan/ton [7][12] - As of August 22, 2025, the current ratio of tin to nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.23, an increase of 0.02 from August 15. As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME tin ratio was 7.96, a decrease of 0.03 from August 14 [16] - As of August 22, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin was 48,043 lots, a decrease of 1,832 lots from August 15, a decline of 3.67%. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,051 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from August 18 [22][23] Group 3: Industrial Chain - Supply Side - In July 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July this year, the imported tin ore concentrates totaled 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15% [28] - In July 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative output of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [29] - On August 22, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of 40% tin concentrates was 254,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the average price of 60% tin concentrates was 258,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the import loss of tin was 6,131.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,314.3 yuan/ton from August 15 [39] - In July 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative import of refined tin was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative export of refined tin was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [40] - As of August 21, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 1,740 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from August 14, a decline of 4.92%. As of August 22, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,491 tons, a decrease of 301 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.86%. The tin futures inventory was 7,053 tons, a decrease of 373 tons from August 15, a decline of 5.02% [45] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,603.26, a decrease of 282.23 from August 14, a decline of 4.8%. From January to July 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces compared with the same period last year, an increase of 20.49% [48] - As of June 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from May 2025, a rise of 10%. As of July 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons from June, an increase of 55% [51]
沪锡市场周报：供需两弱交投平淡，预计锡价震荡调整-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 09:31