沪锌市场周报：逢低采买小幅去库，预计锌价震荡企稳-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton. Looking ahead, macro - factors show that the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, hitting a new high in more than three years and increasing inflation pressure. In terms of fundamentals, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to increase, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to a further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating the growth of supply. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. After the recent decline in zinc prices, downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, and the overall transaction has improved. Domestic social inventories have slightly decreased, and the spot premium has remained stable. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusting at a low position of holdings, and attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic factors include the high US manufacturing PMI and inflation pressure. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 [4]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: The price of Shanghai Zinc futures declined this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.02%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Zinc was 2,767 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75.5 US dollars/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 2.66% [9]. - Net Position and Open Interest: As of August 22, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was -7,709 lots, a decrease of 26,519 lots from August 15, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 211,313 lots, a decrease of 4,138 lots from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.92% [12]. - Price Spreads: As of August 22, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025 [16]. - Premium and Discount: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.11%. The spot discount was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 21, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was -7.54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.98 US dollars/ton from August 14, 2025 [22]. - Inventory: As of August 21, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 8,075 tons from August 14, 2025, with a decline of 10.43%. As of August 22, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 77,838 tons, an increase of 1,035 tons from last week, with an increase of 1.35%. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from August 14, 2025, with an increase of 6.91% [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: In May 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [31]. - Supply - Side: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.18%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1605 million tons, an increase of 36,800 tons from the same period last year, with an increase of 3.27%. The global refined zinc gap was 44,100 tons. In July 2025, the zinc output was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In July 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. The refined zinc export volume was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [36][40][43]. - Downstream: - Galvanized sheet (strip): From January to June 2025, the inventory of domestic major enterprises' galvanized sheet (strip) was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.31%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheet (strip) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%. The export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [46]. - Real estate: From January to July 2025, the new housing construction area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [51][52]. - Infrastructure: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [57]. - Home appliances: In July 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator output was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, the air - conditioner output was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [61]. - Automobile: In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64].