热轧卷板市场周报：成本端支撑减弱，热卷期价承压回落-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 22, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil's main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, reaching 325.24 million tons, up 9.65 million tons week-on-week and 14.97 million tons year-on-year. Terminal demand showed strong resilience, with apparent demand rising to 321.27 million tons, up 6.52 million tons week-on-week and 2.68 million tons year-on-year. Total inventory continued to increase to 361.44 million tons, up 3.97 million tons week-on-week but down 80.77 million tons year-on-year. The steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, down 0.86 percentage points week-on-week but up 63.64 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Overseas, the Trump administration in the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. Globally, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium attracted attention, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to give a keynote speech. Domestically, Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies [9]. - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils continued to rise, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, remaining at a high level. Terminal demand was good, with apparent demand exceeding 3.2 million tons, while inventory continued to increase slightly. Iron ore was resilient due to high pig iron production, while coking coal and coke prices declined [9]. - Technically, the HC2510 contract decreased in volume, with the futures price under pressure from multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA, with an expanding green bar. It is recommended to focus on Powell's speech. Considering pre - parade production cuts in some areas next week, the steel price trend may fluctuate. Short - term trading of the HC2510 contract is advisable, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - Price: As of August 22, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil's main contract was 3361 yuan/ton (-78), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton (-60) [7]. - Production: Hot-rolled coil production continued to increase to 325.24 million tons (+9.65), year-on-year +14.97 million tons [7]. - Demand: Terminal demand showed strong resilience, with apparent demand rising to 321.27 million tons (+6.52), year-on-year +2.68 million tons [7]. - Inventory: Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased, and total inventory continued to rise to 361.44 million tons (+3.97), year-on-year -80.77 million tons [7]. - Profitability Rate: The steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, down 0.86 percentage points week-on-week but up 63.64 percentage points year-on-year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US expanded the tariff scope on steel and aluminum imports, and the market awaited Powell's speech. Domestically, the government aimed to enhance macro - policy effectiveness. - Supply - Demand: Hot-rolled coil production continued to rise, with high capacity utilization. Terminal demand was good, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Cost: Iron ore was resilient, while coking coal and coke prices declined due to increased mine production and reduced steel mill inventory - building意愿 [9]. - Technical: The HC2510 contract decreased in volume, with the futures price under pressure and the MACD indicator showing a downward trend [9]. - Strategy: Focus on Powell's speech. With production cuts in some areas next week, steel prices may fluctuate. Consider short - term trading of the HC2510 contract [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: This week, the HC2510 contract decreased in volume. It was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 9 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan/ton week-on-week [15]. - Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions: On August 22, the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 33,115 tons, down 46,171 tons week-on-week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot-rolled coil futures contracts was 54,853 contracts, down 30,797 contracts from last week [21]. - Spot Price: On August 22, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week-on-week; the national average was 3459 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price was stronger than the futures price, with a basis of 79 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 18 yuan/ton week-on-week [27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw Material Prices: On August 22, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore at Qingdao Port was 820 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne week-on-week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [32]. - Ore Arrivals: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 million tons. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 225.7 million tons. The arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased by 131.5 million tons [37]. - Ore Inventory: This week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 62.63 million tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan increased by 3.57 million tons week-on-week [41]. - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.17%, up 0.04%. Coke production and inventory increased, while coking coal inventory decreased [45]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - Steel Output and Exports: In July 2025, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year. Steel exports in July were 9.836 million tons, up 1.6% month-on-month; imports were 452,000 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month [49]. - Blast Furnace Operation: On August 21, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.2524 million tons, up 965,000 tons week-on-week. On August 22, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points week-on-week [51][53]. - Inventory: On August 21, the factory inventory of hot-rolled coils was 788,900 tons, down 1090 tons week-on-week. The social inventory in 33 cities was 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons week-on-week. The total inventory was 3.6144 million tons, up 39,700 tons week-on-week [58]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - Automobile and Home Appliance: In July 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 14.7% and 13.3% year-on-year respectively. From January - July, the production of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 5.1%, 0.9%, and 9.4% year-on-year respectively [61].