玉米类市场周报：现货市场疲软，期货维持偏弱调整-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bearish trading strategy for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures are in a weak trend due to increased US production and inventory, upcoming new - grain harvest in China, and sufficient supply. Corn starch futures also show a weak trend as the industry's operating rate rises while demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [7][8][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Corn: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA raised the production and ending stocks of US corn in the 2025/26 season. The new grain in Northeast China will be on the market in September, and the supply is relatively loose. The spot market price is under pressure, and the overall trend of corn is weak [8] - Corn Starch: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2498 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. The operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, showing an increase in inventory. The overall trend of starch is weak [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: The November contract of corn futures closed down with a total position of 955,265 lots, an increase of 126,808 lots from the previous week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed down narrowly with a total position of 202,789 lots, an increase of 64,168 lots from the previous week [16] - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 97,205, an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 20,670, also an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week [22] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 103,290, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [28] - Spot Price and Basis: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,373.53 yuan/ton, and the basis between the November active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 198 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton and 2,950 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 352 yuan/ton [33][38] - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 29 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] - Futures Spread: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 323 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [54] - Substitute Spread: As of August 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 51.79 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [58] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Corn Supply: As of August 15, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 66.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 151.1 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 32.9 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 6 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 10 million tons compared to the previous month. As of August 21, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week [48][67][71] - Corn Demand: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 compared to the previous month. As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head. As of August 21, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 46 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 685 yuan/ton, - 551 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 168 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [75][79][84] - Corn Starch Supply: As of August 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 314.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5%. From August 14 to August 20, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 27.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.86 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous week [88][92] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 22, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95]