沪铜市场周报：供需稳定预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a stable supply - demand situation and positive expectations. The fundamentals show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventory remaining in the medium - low range. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 0.47% and an amplitude of 1.02%. The closing price of the main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton [6]. - International Situation: Most Fed officials remain cautious about interest rate cuts. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in August reached 55.4, a new high in 8 months, leading traders to reduce bets on two Fed rate cuts this year [6]. - Domestic Situation: A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [6]. - Fundamentals: The TC spot index of copper concentrates has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The supply of copper concentrates at ports is decreasing, and domestic smelters' demand is rising, with a possible slight increase in domestic refined copper supply. Due to the off - season, downstream consumption is weak, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [6]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market Situation - Contract and Spot Prices: As of August 22, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 78,690 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton, and the position was 120,902 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 31,655 lots. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,830 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 270 yuan/ton [11][17]. - Cross - Period and Premium: The cross - period quotation of the Shanghai copper main contract was 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 57 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,913 lots, a decrease of 7,493 lots from last week [17][23]. - Options and Volatility: As of August 22, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8706, a week - on - week change of 0.0907 [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - Prices and Fees: The copper concentrate quotation in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,160 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [31]. - Imports and Spread: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96% and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,036.84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.53 yuan/ton [36]. - Production and Inventory: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 422,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - side of the Industry - Production: As of July 2025, the monthly production of domestic refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46% and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [46]. - Imports: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32% and a year - on - year growth rate of 12.05% [51]. - Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 750 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,626 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 412 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 129,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35% and a year - on - year growth rate of 9.09% [58]. - Application Fields: - Power and Appliances: As of June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.94% and 14.58% respectively. As of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% respectively [64]. - Real Estate and Semiconductors: As of July 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 29.46 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [70]. 3.3.4 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of May 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [76].