瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2460 in the short - term [8]. - Recently, the output from restored methanol production capacity in China exceeds the loss from maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall output. This week, some enterprises' inventory levels climbed slightly due to fewer previous orders and a slow long - term order pickup pace. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week despite the opened reverse flow space in East China ports [9]. - This week, olefin plants operated stably, with the second - phase plant of Shaanxi Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarted and increasing its load. Next week, the olefin plant of Sinopec Zhongyuan is expected to restart, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy Suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2460 in the short - term [8]. - Market Review: This week, domestic port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, and prices remained weak. The reverse flow space from East China ports to Anhui market has opened, but it has limited impact on port pick - up. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line in the range of 2070 - 2095 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying in the range of 2295 - 2325 yuan/ton [9]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol output increased slightly. Port inventory is expected to keep rising. Olefin plant operating rates are expected to increase [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% [14]. - As of August 22, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 111 [18]. - As of August 22, there were 10,666 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 302 from last week [25]. - Spot Market - As of August 22, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2297.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2072.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - As of August 21, the CFR price of methanol at China's main ports was 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 58 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of August 22, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [44]. - Industry - As of August 21, China's methanol output was 1,897,395 tons, an increase of 34,120 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [47]. - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 207,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% [52]. - In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of August 21, the methanol import profit was 16.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.37 yuan/ton from last week [55]. - Downstream - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45% [58]. - As of August 22, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 977 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.