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白糖市场周报:进口量增加,抑制白糖上方空间-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 10:00

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.11%. The international raw sugar market maintained a low - level oscillating trend, while the domestic market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. Although the inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for sugar prices, factors such as a significant increase in imports, upcoming sugar mill openings in the north, and high expected output in the new season will limit the upside space of prices. The report suggests short - selling at high prices with light positions and controlling risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Analysis: Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose. However, there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The demand is expected to increase due to double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new season's output is expected to be at a high level in the past four years [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - sell at high prices with light positions and control risks [6]. - Future Concerns: Consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of ICE US sugar declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 0.67%. As of August 12, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.41% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net positions increased by 10.99% month - on - month. The net positions of the top 20 holders of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 14,220 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots [9][18]. - Spot Market: As of August 15, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.94 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. As of August 22, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan per ton. As of August 18, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,706 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,491 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%; the in - quota price was 4,509 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,364 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%; the out - of - quota profit was 149 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.41%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,346 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the out - of - quota profit was 126 yuan per ton [12][22][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In July, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [34][38][42]. - Demand Side: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - Options Market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was presented, but no specific data was given [52]. - Stock Market: Information on the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific data was given [57].