油脂油料产业日报-20250822

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are strongly oscillating around 4,500 ringgit. Export growth supports the price, but concerns about production growth and potential slowdown in second - half exports may limit the upside. There's a risk of breaking down after oscillation, with support at 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rebounded after opening lower, and are back above 9,500 yuan. After stabilizing above this level, there's a chance of further upward movement, with an expected rise to 9,800 - 10,000 yuan by the end of the month. However, there's a risk of the rally ending. In September, due to expected production growth in Malaysia and rising inventories, the futures may follow the Malaysian market and weaken, maintaining a near - strong, far - weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - Spot prices rose with the market, and the basis quotes mostly increased. The approaching school start in late August and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking led to increased downstream consumption, strengthening traders' price - holding mentality. The market is less concerned about the ample soybean supply from large Brazilian arrivals as factory soybean oil inventories are near the peak and expected to decline. If Dalian soybean oil corrects due to external markets, the basis quotes may rise further [4]. Soybean Meal - Market rumors of China's potential purchase of US soybeans or a state reserve auction of 3 - 6 million tons of soybeans may ease the supply shortage in Q1 2024, suppressing the market. The decline in South American soybean premiums also affected the 01 contract. The short - term support for Dalian soybean meal is at 3,050 - 3,080 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range between 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term, with cautious purchasing sentiment [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Price and Spread Information - Palm oil: The palm oil 05 contract is at 9,294 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase; the 09 contract is at 9,510 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,497 ringgit/ton, up 0.83%. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 0 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan [8]. - Soybean oil: The soybean oil 01 contract is at 8,458 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; the 05 contract is at 8,142 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the 09 contract is at 8,492 yuan/ton, down 0.94%. The CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 53.77 cents/pound, up 4.59%. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,490 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 66 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [13]. - Oil spreads: Various oil spreads are provided, such as P 1 - 5 at 296 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Y - P 01 at - 1,106 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; Y/M 01 at 2.6964, up 1.27%; OI/RM 01 at 3.8231, up 2.19% [5]. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information - Futures prices: The bean粕 01 contract is at 3,088 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.8%); the 05 contract is at 2,830 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan (-0.39%); the 09 contract is at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan (-0.94%). The菜粕 01 contract is at 2,543 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (-0.7%); the 05 contract is at 2,469 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (-0.28%); the 09 contract is at 2,584 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan (-1%). The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,055, unchanged, and the offshore RMB is at 7.1853, up 0.0044 (0.06%) [18]. - Spreads: M01 - 05 is 272 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; RM01 - 05 is 85 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; M05 - 09 is - 229 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; RM05 - 09 is - 134 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; M09 - 01 is - 43 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RM09 - 01 is 49 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The bean粕 Rizhao spot is at 3,000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the bean粕 Rizhao basis is - 93 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; the菜粕 Fujian spot is at 2,613 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; the菜粕 Fujian basis is 52 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan. The bean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 407 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the bean - rapeseed meal futures spread is 552 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [19][21].