东亚期货软商品日报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Imported sugar arrivals are accelerating, and substitutes are at a high level. However, low inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan provide support. Internationally, Brazil's peak crushing season is pressuring raw sugar, while the expected new - season production increases in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere, along with a stronger US dollar, are intensifying concerns about global supply surplus. The market is in a volatile pattern under the influence of both bullish and bearish factors [3]. - Cotton: The short - term market macro - sentiment is volatile, but the current low inventory of old - cotton still strongly supports near - month contracts. As downstream conditions improve marginally, the cotton price center is likely to rise slightly. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment [15]. - Red Dates: On the basis of last year's high - yield, the new - season grey jujube production is expected to decline year - on - year and may be lower than normal levels, but the extent of the decline is uncertain. As the festival peak season approaches, downstream will start to replenish inventory, and combined with the fermentation of the production - cut sentiment, the short - term red date price trend is strong. However, due to high old - jujube inventories and unclear production, it is not advisable to chase the price up [19]. - Apples: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, paper - bag Gala apples are gradually coming onto the market, and there are coloring problems in some areas [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - On August 22, 2025, SR01 closed at 5670, down 0.32% daily and up 0.11% weekly; SR03 closed at 5648, down 0.3% daily and up 0.14% weekly; SR05 closed at 5631, down 0.27% daily and up 0.16% weekly; SR07 closed at 5621, down 0.25% daily and up 0.1% weekly; SR09 closed at 5726, down 0.05% daily and down 0.24% weekly; SR11 closed at 5652, down 0.53% daily and down 0.26% weekly; SB closed at 16.36, down 1.33% daily and down 0.67% weekly; W closed at 482.9, down 1.31% daily and up 0.29% weekly [4]. - The spreads between different contracts also showed various changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 42, with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly increase of 2 [4]. Basis - On August 21, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 282, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 39; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 167, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 34. Similar changes were seen in other contract - location combinations [10]. Import Prices - On August 22, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian imported sugar was 4491, with a daily decrease of 43 and a weekly increase of 15; the out - of - quota price was 5706, with a daily decrease of 55 and a weekly increase of 20. The in - quota price of Thai imported sugar was 4509, with a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly decrease of 55; the out - of - quota price was 5729, with a daily decrease of 55 and a weekly decrease of 72 [13]. Cotton Futures Prices - On August 22, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 14030, unchanged; Cotton 05 closed at 13990, down 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13760, down 10 (0.07%); Yarn 01 closed at 20055, unchanged; Yarn 05 was 0, down 20290 (100%); Yarn 09 closed at 20060, up 35 (0.17%) [15]. Spreads - The cotton basis was 1213, up 33; Cotton 01 - 05 was 40, up 15; Cotton 05 - 09 was 230, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 was - 270, down 10; the flower - yarn spread was 6060, up 25; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1669, down 30; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 532, unchanged [16]. Red Dates - The new - season grey jujube production may decline, but the extent is uncertain. With the approaching festival season, downstream inventory replenishment and production - cut sentiment are driving short - term price increases. However, high old - jujube inventories and unclear production make it unadvisable to chase the price up [19]. Apples Futures and Spot Prices - On August 22, 2025, AP01 closed at 8018, up 0.17% daily and down 0.12% weekly; AP03 closed at 7923, unchanged daily and down 0.3% weekly; AP04 closed at 7936, down 0.15% daily and down 0.53% weekly; AP05 closed at 8005, up 0.16% daily and down 0.01% weekly; AP10 closed at 8094, down 0.11% daily and down 1.15% weekly; AP11 closed at 7906, up 0.08% daily and down 0.13% weekly; AP12 closed at 7916, unchanged daily and down 0.50% weekly [25]. - Spot prices: the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75, down 1.32% daily and down 1% weekly; the price of Luochuan semi - commercial 70 apples was 4.5, unchanged daily and weekly; the price of Jingning paper - bag 75 apples was 5.6, unchanged daily and weekly; the price of Yiyuan paper - bag 70 apples was 2.3, unchanged daily and weekly; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.8, unchanged daily and weekly [25]. Spreads and Other Indicators - AP01 - 05 was 12, down 157.14% daily and down 700.00% weekly; AP05 - 10 was - 111, up 52.05% daily and down 18.98% weekly; AP10 - 01 was 99, up 5.32% daily and down 28.78% weekly; the main contract basis was 510, down 1.73% daily and up 26.55% weekly [25].