有色套利早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on August 25, 2025 [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price is 78,825 domestically and 9,636 on LME with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 78,630 domestically and 9,715 on LME with a ratio of 8.10. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 171.81, and spot export profit is - 396.63 [1]. - Zinc: Spot price is 22,190 domestically and 2,770 on LME with a ratio of 8.01; March price is 22,260 domestically and 2,773 on LME with a ratio of 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65 with a profit of - 1,764.99 [1]. - Aluminum: Spot price is 20,710 domestically and 2,588 on LME with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20,595 domestically and 2,586 on LME with a ratio of 7.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 1,162.37 [1]. - Nickel: Spot price is 118,400 domestically and 14,749 on LME with a ratio of 8.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 1,806.58 [1]. - Lead: Spot price is 16,575 domestically and 1,942 on LME with a ratio of 8.57; March price is 16,790 domestically and 1,976 on LME with a ratio of 11.25. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 524.17 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 110, 90, 70, 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 495, 887, 1289, 1691 [4]. - Zinc: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 0, - 15, - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 [4]. - Aluminum: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 10, - 25, - 60, - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 [4]. - Lead: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 45, 55, 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 313, 418, 523 [4]. - Nickel: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 90, 100, 350, 600 respectively [4]. - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread is 800, and the theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 240 and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 360 and 812 [4]. - Zinc: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 177 and 306 [4]. - Lead: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 170 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 182 and 293 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.23, 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.73, 4.91, 0.93, 1.32, 0.71 respectively [5].