芳烃橡胶早报-20250825

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with increased unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester开工, and improving supply - demand, there are opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - For MEG, the current situation is good with low inventory, but the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun should be monitored [9]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the destocking continues, there are opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory without seasonal destocking and the rebound of Thai cup - rubber prices due to rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PTA - Price Changes: From August 18 - 22, 2025, crude oil remained stable, while other prices such as naphtha, PX CFR Taiwan, etc., changed to different extents [2]. - Market Situation: Spot daily average trading basis is 2509(+25). Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton and Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton plants are under maintenance. Near - term TA unexpected maintenance increases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve. PX domestic operation rate increases slightly, overseas plants restart, PXN strengthens, disproportionation efficiency weakens, and isomerization efficiency reaches a high level [3]. MEG - Price Changes: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - market, etc., had certain changes [9]. - Market Situation: Spot basis is around 09(+92). Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarts, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton plant is under maintenance. Near - term domestic oil - based plants restart, coal - based operation rate drops slightly, overall load rises, port inventory decreases, basis remains strong, and efficiency ratio is basically stable [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc., changed to different degrees [9]. - Market Situation: Spot price is around 6610, and market basis is around 10 - 170. Near - term Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increase production, operation rate rises slightly to 91.9%, production and sales are basically stable, and inventory decreases [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of US - dollar Thai standard, US - dollar Thai mixed, etc., had daily and weekly changes [9]. - Market Situation: The main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory without seasonal destocking and the rebound of Thai cup - rubber prices due to rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - Price Changes: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc., changed to different degrees [12]. - Market Situation: There are changes in prices of PS, ABS, and domestic profits of styrene - related products [12].