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农产品早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 01:27

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term due to new - season supply and cost changes [4]. - Starch is likely to remain bearish in both the short and long term because of high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. - The price of sugar is under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market follows the trend with limited upward movement [7][20]. - Cotton is in a range - bound state, and its downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. - Egg prices may trigger more old - hen culling if the rebound in late August fails to meet expectations [14]. - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year, and attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. - The pig market has short - term positive factors, but medium - term supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the port spot price of corn weakened, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The processing profit of starch increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply increase is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, the price is likely to decline under the influence of increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and low downstream demand, remaining bearish [4]. Sugar - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot prices in some regions remained stable, the basis changed, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 196 [7]. - Market Analysis: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The domestic market follows the trend, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices dropping, limiting the upward movement of the futures price [7][20]. Cotton - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 155 yuan/ton, the import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 262 [10]. - Market Analysis: Cotton is in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the price is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. Eggs - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, egg prices in major producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 70 [14]. - Market Analysis: High temperatures in mid - July and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices, but weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a decline in prices in early August. If the price rebound in late August fails to meet expectations, more old - hen culling may be triggered [14]. Apples - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory decreased by 14, and the basis changed [17][18]. - Market Analysis: Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. Pigs - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 75 [18]. - Market Analysis: There are long - term policy expectations, but medium - term supply pressure remains. There are short - term positive factors such as supply reduction and consumption improvement, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18].