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大越期货纯碱早报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-25 02:53
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand is weakening, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,326 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 106 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][36]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The peak summer overhaul period is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,306 yuan/ton | 1,205 yuan/ton | - 101 yuan | | Current Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.53% | 1.24% | 4.95% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is delayed [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [20]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E [37].