大越期货纯碱周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures first declined and then rebounded. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 4.95% compared to the previous week, reaching 1326 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1220 yuan/ton, a 4.69% drop from the previous week. With the fading of macro - policy benefits, the market has returned to the fundamental logic. The supply is expected to decline next week, with an expected output of 730,000 tons and an operating rate of around 84%. The downstream demand for float and photovoltaic glass is weak, mainly for rigid needs. The inventory is still at a historically high level. Overall, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - Influencing Factors Summary - Likely Positives: The peak summer maintenance season is approaching, and production will decline [5] - Likely Negatives: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level [6] - Main Logic and Risk Points: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and the macro - benefits exceed expectations [7] Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 4.95% to 1326 yuan/ton, and the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe dropped by 4.69% to 1220 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased by 7.83% [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - Soda Ash Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that of the East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [18] - Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is delayed. The weekly output is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - quality rate of weekly production is 55.12% [21][23][25] - Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant production capacity expansion. The planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [26] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [29] - Soda Ash Downstream Demand - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [32] - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [38] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 1.9108 million tons, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates in each year [42]