大越期货沪铝周报-20250825

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on Shanghai Aluminum (August 18 - 22) - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, adjusted, and declined last week, with the main contract falling 0.67% to close at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - Under the goal of carbon neutrality, long - term capacity control, weak demand in the domestic real estate market, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices [3] - Domestically, demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract declined 0.67% last week, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - LME inventory was 478,725 tons last week, showing a slight decrease from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory increased by 3,952 tons to 124,605 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Elements - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not detailed [6] 3. Market Structure - The market structure section includes the analysis of the basis and import profit, but specific data is not provided [25]