大越期货聚烯烃周报-20250825

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report" and dated August 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance Summary - Last week, L01 rose 0.39% to close at 7380 with a reduction of about 22,000 contracts in positions PP01 fell 0.65% to close at 7038 with an increase of about 45,000 contracts in positions [5] - Technically, recent L and PP main contracts are trading near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5] - According to the main positions in Dayue's five - major indicators, the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for recent L and PP are both bearish [5] - The basis of the L main contract is - 80, and that of the PP main contract is - 8, both main contracts are at a premium [5] Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% On August 20, Bloomberg reported that a comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity, expected to be introduced in September [5] - Supply and demand: The overall demand for PE agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film - making start - up rate is low PP downstream is gradually moving into the peak season, with a slight improvement in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc [5] - Inventory: The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high [5] Forecast - It is expected that the L and PP main contracts will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend this week [5] Market Data Tables Futures and Spot Market Data | Contract | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Change Rate | Spot Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Production Type | Latest Profit | Weekly Profit Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L01 | 7380 | 29 | 0.39% | L Delivery Goods | 7300 | 50 | L Oil - based | - 177 | - 26 | | L05 | 7392 | 46 | 0.62% | PE Comprehensive Warehouse | 564 | 59 | L Coal - based | 805 | - 158 | | L09 | 7321 | 15 | 0.20% | PE Social Inventory | 557 | - 12 | | | | | PP01 | 7038 | - 46 | - 0.65% | PP Delivery Goods | 7030 | - 70 | PP Oil - based | - 154 | - 12 | | PP05 | 7059 | - 21 | - 0.30% | PP Comprehensive Warehouse | 572 | - 15 | PP Coal - based | 362 | - 55 | | PP09 | 6993 | - 65 | - 0.93% | PP Social Inventory | 261 | - 10 | PDH | - 458 | - 48 | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | - 2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [16] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [18]