大越期货沪铜周报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were still global instability factors. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared with last week [4]. - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons [4]. 2. Fundamentals 2.1 PMI - No detailed content provided [10] 2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. 2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][16][19]. 3. Market Structure 3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees were at a low level [22]. 3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Spread - No detailed content provided [27] 3.4 Import Profit - No detailed content provided [30] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No detailed content provided