大越期货沪铜早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased on August 22, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - With inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The comprehensive analysis of copper's various indicators shows a neutral - to - bullish situation, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information about spot prices, inventory types, and their changes is presented, but specific numerical data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated further in the provided content Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, and the LME inventory and other inventory data are also mentioned [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, and other data of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].