沪锌期货早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view is that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai zinc with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, long - position strength is rising, short - position strength is falling, and the long - short forces are starting to be in a stalemate [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22240, and the basis is - 35, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 68075 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 503 tons to 32791 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. The LME inventory warrants continue to decrease, and the SHFE warrants remain at a high level [2][6][7]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is long, changing from short to long, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on August 22 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, there were price changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22285, the opening price was 22215, the highest price was 22290, the lowest price was 22200, the settlement reference price was 22245, down 10 from the previous settlement and down 40 from another reference. The trading volume was 88662 lots, and the open interest was 107792 lots, a decrease of 2634 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on August 22 - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshang was 22240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 11 - 21, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 99000 tons on August 11 to 117400 tons on August 21. Compared with August 14, it increased by 7200 tons; compared with August 18, it increased by 2300 tons [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 22 - The total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 32791 tons, an increase of 503 tons. In different regions, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 475 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 978 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 22 - The LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 41825 tons and a cancelled warrant of 26250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 38.56% [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 22 - The prices of zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, etc. mostly decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with the price in most regions being 16930 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 22 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters such as Chengshan Yunda, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. all decreased by 30 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459700 tons, the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470300 tons [15]. 3.14 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 22 - For the zn2510 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (23380 lots, a decrease of 512 lots), Dongzheng Futures (21436 lots, a decrease of 359 lots), and Guotai Junan (16197 lots, a decrease of 2421 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (15360 lots, a decrease of 633 lots), Guotai Junan (5620 lots, an increase of 70 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (5377 lots, a decrease of 66 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11446 lots, an increase of 93 lots), Dongzheng Futures (8542 lots, a decrease of 790 lots), and Guotai Junan (7752 lots, an increase of 73 lots) [18].