大越期货贵金属早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, and raising expectations of a September interest rate cut [4][5] - The shift in the Fed's stance to dovish provides support for gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge [4] - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai silver converges [5] - Due to Trump's inauguration, the global situation has become extremely volatile, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline, and silver prices are also affected [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, with the US three major stock indexes rising across the board, European three major stock indexes closing slightly higher, US bond yields falling collectively, the US dollar index dropping 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX gold futures rising 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce. The gold basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [4] - Silver: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the US dollar index dropped 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce. The silver basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [5] 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Expectations are that today's focus will be on US new home sales in July and speeches by Fed members. Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, and gold prices rebounded significantly. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge to -0.45 yuan/gram. The Fed's dovish stance provides support for gold prices [4] - Silver: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to around 370 yuan/kilogram. The Fed's dovish stance makes silver prices stronger [5] 3. Today's Focus - All day: The UK stock market is closed for a holiday - 09:00: China Evergrande is officially delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange - 10:00: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period - 16:00: Germany's August IFO business climate index - 20:30: US Chicago Fed national activity index for July - 22:00: US new home sales in July - 22:30: US Dallas Fed business activity index for August - 03:15 the next day: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan gives a speech [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms [4] - Silver: The basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms [5] 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.55% to 613,101, the short positions increased by 1.68% to 464,900, and the net position decreased by 2.84% to 148,201 [4][29] - Silver: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.26% to 1,055,006, the short positions decreased by 0.10% to 958,085, and the net position increased by 3.96% to 96,921 [5][31] - ETF Positions: Gold ETF positions continue to decrease, and silver ETF positions decreased slightly but are higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37] - Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and are higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41]