大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamental situation is neutral, with the plastic主力合约盘面 expected to be volatile today. The anti - involution policy expectation has resurfaced, but the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the industrial inventory is neutral [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamental situation is neutral, with the PP主力合约盘面 expected to be volatile today. The anti - involution policy expectation has resurfaced, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (+70), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 80, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The anti - involution policy expectation has resurfaced, the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the industrial inventory is neutral [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the expected introduction of the petrochemical anti - involution reform plan in the near future are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7030 (- 0), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [8]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 8, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.1%, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (- 15,000), indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The anti - involution policy expectation has resurfaced, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and the expected introduction of the petrochemical anti - involution reform plan in the near future are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy promotion [7][10] - Main Risk Points: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7300 (+70), the price of the 01 contract is 7380 (- 6), the basis is - 80, the warehouse receipt is 7684 (0), and the comprehensive PE inventory includes factory and social inventories [11]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7030 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 7038 (- 10), the basis is - 8, the warehouse receipt is 14055 (+115), and the comprehensive PP inventory includes factory and social inventories [11]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have shown different trends. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have shown different trends. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18].