大越期货尿素早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today. The main influencing factors include the strong international price and weak domestic demand, with the key risk being changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has oscillated and declined recently. The earlier rumor of increased urea export due to improved China - India relations led to a price increase, but the actual export demand has not improved significantly. The current daily production and operating rate are still high, and the inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea far exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable is 1810 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.9%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.7 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply far exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1810 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1739 | -25 | | Shandong Spot | 1810 | -10 | Basis | 71 | 15 | | Henan Spot | 1830 | 0 | UR05 | 1782 | -15 | | FOB China | 2941 | | UR09 | 1715 | -22 | | | | | | | | - The warehouse receipt is 4073 (+500), the UR comprehensive inventory is 145.7 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer inventory is 96.8 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 48.9 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10]