集运早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August to early September (week 35 - 36). Week 35's final average price is $2550 (equivalent to 1800 points), and week 36's current average quoted price is $2300 (equivalent to 1600 points). Among them, PA Alliance quotes $2200 - 2300, MSK quotes $2100 (later increased to $2200), and OA Alliance quotes $2300 - 2400. From a fundamental perspective, MSK has relatively less pressure to receive goods due to its large price cut, but most shipping companies have pressure to receive goods at the end of the month [1]. - In September 2025, the overall shipping capacity is adjusted downwards because OA Alliance's FAL8 adds a suspension of service in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 320,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspensions, it is 290,000 TEU for both months. Overall, the situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force continues to be weak. However, the valuation in October is gradually approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), and the downward space may be limited. Subsequently, attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the December contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2127.7 yesterday, up 0.13%, with a basis of 52.5, a trading volume of 120, an open interest of 1968, and a change in open interest of - 92 [1]. - EC2510 closed at 1309.0 yesterday, down 1.21%, with a basis of 871.2, a trading volume of 25350, an open interest of 54255, and a change in open interest of - 38 [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1661.2 yesterday, down 3.50%, with a basis of 519.0, a trading volume of 8311, an open interest of 13295, and a change in open interest of 1086 [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1465.0 yesterday, down 3.17%, with a basis of 715.2, a trading volume of 1372, an open interest of 4455, and a change in open interest of 52 [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1264.5 yesterday, down 1.94%, with a basis of 915.7, a trading volume of 1364, an open interest of 5836, and a change in open interest of 120 [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1430.0 yesterday, down 2.73%, with a basis of 750.2, a trading volume of 203, an open interest of 879, and a change in open interest of 20 [1]. 3.2 Month - spread Information - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 818.7 the previous day, with a day - on - day increase of 18.7 and a week - on - week increase of 103.6 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 352.2 the previous day, with a day - on - day increase of 44.2 and a week - on - week increase of 64.4 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 196.2 the previous day, with a day - on - day decrease of 12.2 and a week - on - week increase of 556 [1]. 3.3 Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index on August 18, 2025, was 2180.17 points, down 2.47% from the previous period and down 2.71% from the period before the previous one [1]. - The SCFI (European line) index was $1668/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period and down 7.9% from the period before the previous one [1]. - The CCFI (European line) index on August 22, 2025, was 1757.74 points, down 1.83% from the previous period and down 0.48% from the period before the previous one [1]. - The NCFI (European line) index on August 22, 2025, was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period and down 5.49% from the period before the previous one [1]. 3.4 Other Information - As of August 24, a Hamas senior official said that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and insisting on continuing the offensive [3]. - On August 21, the US and the EU reached an agreement on the "Framework Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade". The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, plan to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, another $40 billion of US artificial intelligence chips, and significantly increase the purchase of US military and defense equipment. EU companies will also invest an additional $600 billion in US strategic industries [4]. - The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days for publication [5].