大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. Next week, the supply side's production scheduling is expected to decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [4][7][76] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate was in a downward trend this week. The opening price on Monday was 88,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 78,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 10.40% [4] - Supply Side: This week's lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,179 tons, a 4.46% increase month - on - month; lithium mica production was 2,650 tons, a 32.05% decrease month - on - month; salt lake production was 2,552 tons, a 6.92% decrease month - on - month; recycling production was 1,757 tons, a 4.65% increase month - on - month [4] - Demand Side: In July 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 96,099 physical tons, a 2.50% increase month - on - month. The predicted demand for next month is 102,145 physical tons, a 6.29% increase month - on - month. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 366 physical tons, a 14.88% decrease month - on - month, and the predicted export volume for next month is 607 physical tons, a 65.85% increase month - on - month [5] - Cost Side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,526 yuan/ton, a 1.07% daily decrease, with a production profit of 3,193 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 4,269 yuan/ton; the recycling production cost is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6] - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory is 46,846 tons, a 5.72% decrease month - on - month; the downstream inventory is 51,507 tons, a 6.68% increase month - on - month; other inventories are 43,190 tons, a 2.46% decrease month - on - month; the total inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease month - on - month [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The report presents historical price trends of lithium ore, as well as production data of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China from 2019 - 2025 [14] - Import and Self - sufficiency Rate: It shows the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate from Australia and other countries from 2019 - 2025, as well as the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore [14] - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance table of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [17] 3.2.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: It shows the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume data of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) from 2018 - 2025 [20] - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [26] 3.2.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide from 2022 - 2025, as well as monthly production, capacity, and export volume data from different sources (causticization, smelting) from 2018 - 2025 [29] - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [31] 3.2.4 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - It presents the cost - profit data of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit data of lithium hydroxide processing and export from 2022 - 2025 [34][36][39] 3.2.5 Inventory - It shows the historical data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventory (including smelter, downstream, and total inventory) from 2018 - 2025 [41] 3.2.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: It shows the price trends of different types of batteries, monthly production of battery cells, monthly loading volume of power batteries, and export volume of lithium batteries from 2019 - 2025 [45] - Inventory and Tendering: It shows the inventory data of lithium battery cells and the tendering data of energy storage projects from 2023 - 2025 [47] 3.2.7 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: It shows the price trends, cost - profit data, processing fees, capacity utilization rates, and monthly production data of ternary precursors from 2018 - 2025 [50] - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [53] 3.2.8 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: It shows the price trends, cost - profit data, processing fees, weekly operating rates, and monthly production data of ternary materials from 2018 - 2025 [56] - Import, Export, and Inventory: It shows the import, export, and weekly inventory data of ternary materials from 2019 - 2025 [58] 3.2.9 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: It shows the price trends, production costs, cost - profit data, monthly operating rates, and monthly production data of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium from 2016 - 2025 [60] - Export and Inventory: It shows the monthly export volume and weekly inventory data of iron phosphate lithium from 2019 - 2025 [63] 3.2.10 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: It shows the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory data of new energy vehicles from 2019 - 2025 [68] 3.3 Technical Analysis - The report provides the price and trading volume trends of the LC main contract from July 23 to August 22, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving average data [75]