甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and actual inventory. The expected return of inland supply is on the horizon, and traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol's valuation may decline [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - For polypropylene, upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operation is seasonally weak, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide's profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. Currently, the contradiction in static inventory is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation [4]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the daily change of动力煤期货 is 0, the change of江苏现货 is - 13,华南现货 is - 15,鲁南折盘面 is - 5,西南折盘面 is 0,河北折盘面 is 0,西北折盘面 is 8, CFR中国 is - 4, CFR东南亚 is 0,进口利润 is 15,主力基差 is 0, and盘面MTO利润 is 0 [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the daily change of东北亚乙烯 is 0,华北LL is 0,华东LL is 40,华东LD is 25,华东HD is - 20, LL美金 is 0, LL美湾 is 0,进口利润 is 0,主力期货 is - 6,基差 is 0,两油库存 is - 2, and仓单 is 0 [4]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the daily change of山东丙烯 is 50,东北亚丙烯 is 0,华东PP is 5,华北PP is 5,山东粉料 is 0,华东共聚 is 0, PP美金 is 0, PP美湾 is 0,出口利润 is 0,主力期货 is - 10,基差 is 0,两油库存 is - 2, and仓单 is 115 [4]. PVC - Price Data: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the daily change of西北电石 is 0,山东烧碱 is 10,电石法 - 华东 is - 10,乙烯法 - 华东 is 0,电石法 - 华南 is 0,电石法 - 西北 is 0,进口美金价（CFR中国） is 0,出口利润 is 0,西北综合利润 is 0,华北综合利润 is 0, and基差(高端交割品) is 0 [4].