大越期货燃料油早报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. 2. Core View The market is concerned that Trump may increase sanctions against Russia, causing high - sulfur fuel oil prices to rise. In the short term, it will continue to operate strongly. The expected operating range for FU2510 is 2850 - 2900, and for LU2511 is 3500 - 3550 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil refining profit weakened on August 22. The spot premium of IMO2020 - compliant marine fuel oil widened due to competitive sales of September - loaded cargoes. Singapore's fuel oil imports nearly doubled to 1.4 million tons in the week ending August 20, with Asian suppliers accounting for about 31% (428,422 tons) [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at $387.46 per ton with a basis of 90 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at $484.5 per ton with a basis of 67 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week ending August 20 was 23.919 billion barrels, an increase of 1.28 billion barrels [3]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main Position: High - sulfur main position is short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main position is short, with a decrease in short positions [3]. - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the FU main contract futures increased by 55 to 2767, a 2.03% increase; the LU main contract futures increased by 6 to 3467, a 0.17% increase. In the spot market, prices of various fuel oils also showed different degrees of increase [3][5][6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Analysis - Positive Factors: There may be an increase in sanctions against Russia [4]. - Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market Driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data The report provides information on fuel oil fundamentals including refining profit, imports, basis, inventory, market trends, and main positions [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report does not explicitly mention spread data analysis. 3.5 Inventory Data Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels over time [3][8].