大越期货沥青期货周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The 10 - contract of asphalt showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week. The demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen [5][6][105]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Price Trend: The 10 - contract opened at 3,461 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 3,483 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [5]. - Supply Side: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [5]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to provide short - term support [5]. - Inventory Side: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the factory inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis This week, the main 10 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [105].