大越期货原油早报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-25 03:18
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil continues to stabilize, fluctuate, and recover. With the stagnation of the Russia-Ukraine peace process, Trump issued a "two-week" ultimatum to Russia. As of now, Russia has not made any concessions on the ceasefire agreement. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech boosted the market, causing oil prices to strengthen in the short term. The follow - up should focus on the pressure that the end of the summer peak season on the demand side may bring. It is expected to operate in the range of 488 - 498 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the September meeting, stating that risks in the job market are rising and inflation remains a threat. Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Kazakhstan's oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline continues without restrictions, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Basis: On August 22, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.08 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.57 per barrel. The basis was 32.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, showing a bullish sign [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels), and EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels). Cushing region inventory increased by 0.419 million barrels in the week ending August 15 (previous increase of 0.045 million barrels). As of August 22, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.767 million barrels, remaining unchanged, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - Main Position: As of August 19, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions, presenting a neutral situation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump's Threat to Russia: Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Russia still demands that Ukraine give up a large area of territory in the eastern Donbass region, which is firmly rejected by Ukraine. Russia launched an air strike on a US - funded electronics factory in western Ukraine last Thursday, causing at least 15 injuries [5]. - Powell's Hint of Interest Rate Cut: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the next meeting, saying that the prospect of a more severe slowdown in the job market may alleviate concerns about inflation caused by tariff - induced cost increases [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US conducts secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - Bearish Factors: There is hope for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine; the US has continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium and long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $67.67 to $67.22, a decrease of $0.45 (- 0.66%); WTI crude oil increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); SC crude oil increased from 486.7 to 491.0, an increase of 4.30 (0.88%); Oman crude oil increased from $69.72 to $69.98, an increase of $0.26 (0.37%) [7]. - Spot Quotes: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $68.29 to $68.48, an increase of $0.19 (0.28%); WTI increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.78 to $70.08, an increase of $0.30 (0.43%); Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $65.09 to $65.51, an increase of $0.42 (0.65%); Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.94 to $69.95, an increase of $0.01 (0.01%) [9]. - Inventory Trends: API inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels in the week ending August 15; EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of August 19, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of August 19, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [17].