Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may have a small - scale inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a small inventory build - up in August; zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be a short - position configuration in the long - term; nickel can focus on the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak and should pay attention to policy trends; lead prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillation; tin should be observed in the short - term and held near the cost line in the long - term; industrial silicon is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term; lithium carbonate has large price elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [1][2][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 45, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 1009. - Market Situation: The risk - preference sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, it did not affect the stock market sentiment. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7 - 8, and the substitution effect of refined and waste copper continued to appear. The waste copper and recycled copper market was still disturbed, and if the recycled rod production continued to decline, it might stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, there may be a small - scale inventory build - up, but the market may focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the social inventory of Shanghai aluminum decreased. - Market Situation: The supply increased slightly from January to June. The demand in August is still in the seasonal off - season, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in August. Pay attention to the demand situation in the short - term and the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300. - Market Situation: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The supply of domestic zinc increased in August, and the overseas mine supply in the second quarter exceeded expectations. The domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and the overseas demand was average. The domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and the overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is a short - position configuration. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5][6]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 450. - Market Situation: The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory of domestic and overseas nickel plates remained stable. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is general, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel can continue to be concerned [9][10]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 75. - Market Situation: Some steel mills cut production passively, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend in the later stage [12][14]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 6550. - Market Situation: The lead price oscillated this week. The supply side had problems such as weak scrap volume and tight waste batteries. The demand side had high battery finished - product inventory and a "not - prosperous peak season". The inventory was expected to remain at a high level in August, and the lead price was expected to remain in low - level oscillation next week [15]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot import profit decreased by 3915.73, and the LME inventory increased by 45. - Market Situation: The tin price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had issues such as low processing fees at the mine end and potential production resumptions overseas. The demand side had limited solder elasticity and different trends in terminal electronics and photovoltaic consumption. The domestic inventory decreased slightly. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it can be held near the cost line [18]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 110, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 110. - Market Situation: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand was in a state of slight inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon has a large over - capacity, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From August 18th to 22nd, the SMM electric - carbon price decreased by 1300, and the SMM industrial - carbon price decreased by 1300. - Market Situation: The futures price fluctuated greatly this week due to supply - side disturbances. The spot market had a strong peak - season effect, and the inventory was still high. The core contradiction is the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - supply in the long - term. The price has large elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [23][24].
永安期货有色早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 03:22