大越期货PVC期货早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [8]. - From the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - In terms of cost, the profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The calcium carbide method cost is strengthening, the ethylene method cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,975 - 5,063. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [10][14]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market data shows various indicators such as prices, spreads, inventories, and start - up rates. For example, the price of 01 contract increased by 0.30% to 5,019 yuan/ton, the social inventory increased by 3.08% to 508,000 tons, and the profile start - up rate increased by 2.00% to 37.65% [16]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract over time [18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - It shows the trading volume, price trends, and changes in the positions of the top 5/20 seats of the main PVC futures contract in 2025, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and moving averages [21]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) in 2024 and 2025, helping to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 to 2025 [27]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - It shows the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2025 [30]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025, as well as the double - ton price difference and caustic soda apparent consumption trends [35][38]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [40][43]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [45][49][54][57]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [58]. 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [60]. 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].