大越期货沥青期货早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries reducing production recently to ease the pressure. The overall demand recovery is weak, and the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3461 - 3505 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high level of crude oil cost providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The weekly shipments of sample enterprises are 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - Basis: On August 22, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, showing a bullish situation [8]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the asphalt profit trend from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - Production Volume: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report presents the price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The report presents the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][64][65]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report presents the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - Import and Export Situation - The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - The report presents the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: The report presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2025 [84][86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report presents the sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume trend, and the roller sales volume trend from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91][92]. - Asphalt Construction Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - Asphalt Construction Rate by Use: The report presents the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - Downstream Construction Situation - The report shows the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104][105].