大越期货PVC期货周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. Next week, demand may remain sluggish, and with a reduction in expected maintenance and a significant increase in expected production scheduling, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 01 contract declined, with an opening price of 5103 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 5019 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.64% [5] - In terms of supply, in July 2025, PVC production was 2004610 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [5] - In terms of demand, the overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will remain sluggish next week [5] - In terms of cost, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average [6] - Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The overall inventory is at a neutral level [6] 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Base - price trend: Relevant data and trend charts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][10] - Price and volume trends: The price and trading volume trends of the main contract from July 22 to August 22, 2025, are shown, along with the trends of moving averages and the net position changes of the top 5/20 seats [13] - Spread analysis: The spread trends of the main contract from 2024 to 2025 are presented, including 1 - 9 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, etc. [16] 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium carbide method - related aspects: - Lancoke: Data on Lancoke prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production are presented [19] - Calcium carbide: Data on calcium carbide prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production are presented [22] - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: Data on liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and monthly production are presented [25] - Caustic soda: Data on caustic soda prices, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, inventory, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, etc., are presented [27][30] - PVC supply trends: Data on calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and overall capacity utilization rates are presented [32][34] - Demand trends: - Overall demand indicators: Data on daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate are presented [37][38] - Downstream product operating rates: Data on the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin are presented [41] - Paste resin: Data on paste resin gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption are presented [43] - Real estate and macro - economic indicators: Data on real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year are presented [46][49] - Inventory: Data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouse, ethylene method factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days are presented [51] - Ethylene method: Data on vinyl chloride and dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB spreads, and vinyl chloride import spreads are presented [53] - Supply - demand balance sheet: Data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports from June 2024 to July 2025 are presented [56] 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [61]