工业硅期货周报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly while demand remains sluggish, with cost support rising, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. For polysilicon, the supply will increase in the short - term and potentially adjust in the medium - term, the demand will continue to recover, and the cost support will weaken, also with a bearish oscillatory adjustment expected [4][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 11 - contract declined this week, with an opening price of 8805 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 8745 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 0.68% [4]. - Supply: The weekly supply was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 38,235 tons, a 1.81% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 53.8%, up 1.19 percentage points from last month [4]. - Demand: The weekly demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease from the previous week, remaining in a slump [5]. - Cost: The production loss of oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang was 3174 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 175,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; the main port inventory was 117,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 11 - contract declined this week, with an opening price of 52,810 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 51,405 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 2.66% [7]. - Supply: Last week's output was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease. The planned output for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in terms of output, inventory, and profit. Overall, the demand is gradually recovering [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 35,590 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,410 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historically high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread, showing the price relationships between different products and contracts [13][14]. - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: Analyzes the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions and time periods, including weekly and monthly data [18][19][20]. - Cost: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types, including electricity prices, silica prices, and electrode prices [23]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Analyzes the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including factors such as production, import, export, and consumption [26][29]. - Downstream Industries: Analyzes the market trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, covering aspects such as price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance [32][41][49]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [72][73]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [74][75].