工业硅期货早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,570 - 8,920 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous recovery overall, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,100 - 52,710 [7][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease compared to the previous week, with continuous weak demand [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory was 249,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory was 54,300 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 512,100 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,174 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Market: The spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease compared to the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.07% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components shows different trends in production, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,590 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 12,410 yuan/ton [9]. - Market: The basis of the 11 - contract was - 2,405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in inventory and production data [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in prices, inventories, and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also presents various data trends and analyses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization, cost, supply - demand balance, and downstream product trends [20][24][31]