Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 fluctuated slightly within the range of 5,650 - 5,700. Although imports have increased significantly recently, the impact on the spot market is not significant, and the spot price remains firm. The futures price has been at a discount to the spot price for a long time, already reflecting the bearish expectations in advance. Without major negative factors, there is limited room for further price decline. Instead, the bearish expectations are gradually being repaired, and the probability of the price rising to 5,800 has increased [5]. - Due to strong domestic sales and a firm spot price, the domestic market of white sugar has outperformed the international market. The main contract of Zhengzhou white sugar 01 has been oscillating upwards, with its center of gravity slowly rising. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 fluctuated slightly within the range of 5,650 - 5,700. Imports have increased significantly recently, but the impact on the spot market is not significant, and the spot price remains firm. The futures price has been at a discount to the spot price for a long time, already reflecting the bearish expectations in advance. Without major negative factors, there is limited room for further price decline. Instead, the bearish expectations are gradually being repaired, and the probability of the price rising to 5,800 has increased [5]. - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: Strong domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose [7]. - Bearish factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import pressure [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have predicted a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The sugar - cane planting area in China is expected to be 1.44 million hectares in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import Costs: The refined and duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw - sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the cost was in the range of 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [44]. 5. Position Data No information provided.
大越期货白糖周报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:45