大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:43
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA futures market rose significantly due to unplanned maintenance of some plants this week. The supply - demand outlook has improved, and the spot basis has strengthened. In the short term, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of the Hengli Huizhou plant and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. MEG - In late August, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is scarce, and the pick - up at major ports has improved recently. Port inventories will continue to decline in the next two weeks. Starting from early September, the arrival of foreign - sourced goods will increase. The short - term trend of ethylene glycol is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long run. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4865, and the 01 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period, which is a bearish factor [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4512, and the 01 - contract basis is 38, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 50.05 tons, a 2.69 - ton decrease from the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive Factors: In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, which is expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, there are expectations of increased demand. The 200 - million - ton Yisheng Hainan plant is under maintenance, and the 250 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant has unexpectedly shut down [10]. - Negative Factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides PTA supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides ethylene glycol supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 3.5 Price - The report presents historical price data of PET bottle chips, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and other price - related information from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The report shows inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The report provides historical data on the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [53][55][57]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - The report presents historical data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (including different production methods), polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][63][66].