2025年JacksonHole会议点评：以变应变：美联储政策的转折与框架的回归

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy's GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, approximately half of the 2.5% growth rate expected for the first half of 2024[2] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 35,000 jobs per month from May to July 2025, significantly below the 2024 average[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - July 2025 CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation pressures[2] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the natural unemployment rate and the need for a balanced approach when employment and inflation targets conflict[1] Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a shift back to a flexible inflation targeting framework, abandoning the previous compensatory strategy adopted in 2020[3] - The consensus statement removed references to the "employment shortfall," highlighting the uncertainty in estimating the natural unemployment rate[3] Future Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in the September meeting has increased, reflecting concerns over the labor market's fragility and potential economic downturns[6] - The adjustments in monetary policy framework may lead to increased market volatility due to reduced predictability in future policy paths[5]