建信期货豆粕日报-20250825

Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 1: Market Review Futures Contract Data - DCE M2601: Pre-settlement price was 3128, opening at 3116, reaching a high of 3116, a low of 3079, and closing at 3088, down 40 or 1.28%. Trading volume was 1,278,955, with an open interest of 2,000,115, a decrease of 58,947 [6]. - DCE M2509: Pre-settlement price was 3088, opening at 3079, high of 3079, low of 3033, and closing at 3041, down 47 or 1.52%. Trading volume was 110,869, open interest was 182,385, down 44,763 [6]. - DCE M2511: Pre-settlement price was 3107, opening at 3081, high of 3094, low of 3048, and closing at 3055, down 52 or 1.67%. Trading volume was 128,296, open interest was 559,890, down 1,897 [6]. External Market and Weather Factors - The US soybean futures contract on the external market rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. ProFarmer started its annual crop field inspection this week. Feedback on soybeans showed that the pod numbers in most major producing areas were historically high, in line with the USDA's high-yield forecast for this year. However, weather is still variable. Currently, about 9% of the US soybean area is in drought, up from 3% last week, and rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks [6]. Group 2: Industry News ProFarmer Forecasts - In 2025, the average number of soybean pods in Illinois is expected to be 1479.22, compared to 1419.11 in the 2024 crop inspection. In Iowa's D1 region, it's expected to be 1279.25 (1108.76 in 2024), in D4 region 1376.15 (1254.09 in 2024), and in D7 region 1562.54 (1366.22 in 2024) [9]. USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending August 14, total US soybean export sales increased by 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Current market-year sales decreased by 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four-week average, while the market expected a range from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 300,000 tons. Next market-year sales increased by 1.1426 million tons, higher than the expected range of 400,000 - 1 million tons. Export shipments were 517,900 tons, down 3% from the previous week but up 9% from the four-week average. New sales for the current market year were 136,500 tons, and for the next market year were 1.1454 million tons [8][9][10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as the ex-factory price of soybean meal, basis of the M09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][18]