大越期货白糖早报-20250825

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic sales of sugar are good, the spot price is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: SCA Brasil predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, the basis is 360 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [5] - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [5] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5] - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5] - Expectation: Due to good domestic sales, the spot price of sugar is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.04 million tons. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.17 million tons, and USDA predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with consumption increasing by 1.4% and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. However, the domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 [6][8] - Price: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] - Import and tariff: Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the additional import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the additional import tariff on raw sugar outside the quota [8] 5. Position Data - No information provided