大越期货天胶早报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4] - The basis is - 975 with a spot price of 14,650, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4] - The price is running below the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4] 2. Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) declined on August 22 [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - The Qingdao region inventory has changed slightly recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] 3. Multi - empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] 4. Basis - The basis weakened on August 21 [35]