大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to be weak. At the beginning of the week, trading was light, but as nickel prices further declined, trading improved. In the industry chain, ore prices remained stable, while ferronickel prices increased slightly, with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories increased, and it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver October" period will boost consumption and reduce inventories. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand growth. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Views and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel View: Nickel prices were weak this week. The ore price was stable, ferronickel price rose slightly, stainless steel inventory increased, and the overall demand boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Operation Strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week [13]. - Electrolytic Nickel: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory prices decreased by 0.61%, 0.87%, and 0.57% respectively compared with last week [14]. - Nickel Iron: The price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong increased by 7.81%, while the price of high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged [13]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% compared with last week [14]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 0.74%, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged [13]. 3.2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were the same as last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, an increase of 1.1069 million wet tons or 10.11% from the previous period. In July 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6591 million tons or 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5207 million tons or 43.63%. The September quotation was settled, and the ore price remained stable [17]. 3.2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with support below and pressure above. In the long - term, supply and demand will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In July 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 38,164.223 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,154 tons or 124.36%, and the export volume was 15,545.572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,403 tons or 53.27%. LME inventory decreased by 1,914 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons [22][30][33]. 3.2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions Analysis - Ferronickel prices increased slightly. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production of metal was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 206,000 tons or 19.7%. In July 2025, the nickel iron inventory was 224,800 physical tons, equivalent to 21,800 nickel tons [43][46][49]. 3.2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions Analysis - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2108 million tons, and the 300 - series production decreased by 2.63% month - on - month. The latest stainless steel import volume was 73,000 tons, and the export volume was 416,300 tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons [56][61][64]. 3.2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation - In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5%. In July 2025, the production of power and other batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [73][74][78]. 3.3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fell below the 20 - day moving average and continued to decline along the moving average. The short - selling force is increasing. The MACD continued to diverge downward after a death cross. The KDJ entered the oversold area and may have a rebound demand. The price is testing the support of the golden ratio line. If it breaks down, the downward space will be opened; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate [81]. 3.4. Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - Fundamental Views: The nickel ore market is neutral, the ferronickel market is neutral, the refined nickel market is slightly bearish, the stainless steel market is neutral, and the new energy market is neutral [84]. - Trading Strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86].