沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices continued to be weak. At the beginning of the week, trading was light, but as prices fell further, trading improved. The ore price remained stable, and the ferronickel price increased slightly, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless steel inventories rose, and the market is looking forward to the "Golden September and Silver October" to boost consumption and reduce inventories. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year-on-year, limiting overall demand. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless steel price decreased. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping cost was firm, and the ferronickel price increased slightly, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless steel inventories rose, and the market should focus on consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October". The conclusion is that stainless steel 2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 沪镍 - 基本面: Last week, nickel prices were weak. Ore prices were stable, ferronickel prices rose slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery installed capacity decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - 基差: The spot price was 120,550, and the basis was 940, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - 库存: LME inventory was 209,748 (+150), and SHFE warrants were 22,552 (-36), showing a bearish signal [2]. - 盘面: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - 主力持仓: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - 结论: SHFE nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. 不锈钢 - 基本面: The spot stainless steel price decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable, shipping costs were firm, and ferronickel prices rose slightly. Stainless steel inventories increased, and the market should focus on "Golden September and Silver October" consumption [4]. - 基差: The average stainless steel price was 13,775, and the basis was 1025, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - 库存: Futures warrants were 101,925 (-16,715), showing a bearish signal [4]. - 盘面: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - 结论: Stainless steel 2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 多空因素 - 利多因素: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - 利空因素: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - 期货价格: On August 22, the SHFE nickel main contract was 119,610 (-220), LME nickel was 14,975 (+35), and the stainless steel main contract was 12,750 (-45). - 现货价格: On August 22, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,550 (-550), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 (-500), 1 imported nickel was 119,650 (-600), and nickel beans were 121,700 (-600). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices also decreased slightly [12]. 镍仓单、库存 - As of August 22, SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). LME inventory was 209,748 (+150), and SHFE warrants were 22,552 (-36). The total inventory was 232,300 (+114) [14][15]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - On August 22, Wuxi inventory was 61.46 tons, Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The inventory of the 300 series was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). Futures warrants were 101,925 (-16,715) [18][19]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - 镍矿: The price of laterite nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, remaining unchanged. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable. - 镍铁: The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 930 yuan/nickel point (+1), and the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [22]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 12,919, the scrap steel production cost was 13,587, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 [24]. 镍进口成本测算 - The imported price was converted to 120,957 yuan/ton [27].