橡胶策略周报：回落做多-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report The market pulled back slightly this week, but there is support below. The market is expected to enter the traditional bullish trend as it approaches the seasonal consumption peak season, domestic visible inventory is decreasing, and there are no new external macro negatives. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Review - This week, the market pulled back slightly and failed to break through the upper edge of the oscillation range platform. However, the price is supported below, the bullish pattern remains intact, and the market is expected to continue the bullish pattern in the future. The RU2601 contract fell 1.76%, the NR2510 contract fell 1.57%, and the BR2510 contract fell 1.35% [3] 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,210 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 519 tons to 212,669 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,460 tons to 178,470 tons [5] 3.4 Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week because the futures declined more [6] 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices fluctuated this week, with smoked sheets and cup rubber falling and latex rising. - The operating rates of tire enterprises all rebounded, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires remained unchanged. - The market is about to enter the seasonal consumption peak season, domestic visible inventory is decreasing, and there are no new external macro negatives. The market is expected to enter a traditional bullish trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]