棉花早报-20250825

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - August 25, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Report Source: Dayue Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 shows signs of starting to rise after a short - term struggle at 14,000. Optimistic expectations may prevail regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. After standing firm at 14,000, the probability of a volatile upward trend increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content is provided under this section in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 25/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's August report shows production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons in the 25/26 season. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season includes production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,243, with a basis of 1213 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still considered bullish [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Reduced previous Sino - US additional tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There are enhanced expectations for the peak consumption seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: The trade negotiation is postponed, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the total global production is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4][13]. 3.5. Position Data No content is provided under this section in the report.