瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed significantly, with both supply and demand increasing. Inventory remains high but is being depleted [2]. - The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a decrease in implied volatility [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 79,380 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 132,250 hands, up 6,209 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 368,667 hands, up 6,413 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 24,990 hands/ton, up 670 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 82,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,200 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 1,820 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 970 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 44,600 tons per month, up 500 tons; imports are 13,845.31 tons per month, down 3,852.31 tons; exports are 366.35 tons per month, down 63.31 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; power battery production is 133,800 MWh per month, up 4,600 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000, down 25,000; the monthly sales are 1,262,000, down 67,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the monthly export is 225,000, up 20,000; the cumulative export is 1.308 million, up 600,000 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 199,430, up 35,436; the total put position is 148,570, down 3,546; the put - call ratio of total positions is 74.5%, down 18.2597 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is down 0.0243 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.4%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of LCE [2]. - Ganfeng Lithium said it is deploying two key materials in the field of sulfide solid - state battery materials, and its lithium sulfide products have passed customer quality certification and are supplied to multiple downstream customers [2]. - From January to July, the added value of the five major industries in the machinery industry increased year - on - year, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 8.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 3.8%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 10.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 11.9%, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry by 7.1% [2]. - The State Council executive meeting and the national video - teleconference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones have made arrangements for the next stage, and experts believe that the policy may increase financial support and expand the scope of product categories [2].