沪铜产业日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, due to the release of copper mine supply, the spot index of copper concentrate TC has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The firmness of copper mines still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly. In terms of demand, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption is still relatively flat. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have a certain demand for advance stocking, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and the industry inventory remains in the medium - low range. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.18, a month - on - month increase of 0.0267. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,809 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 111,351 lots, down 9551 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 1,913 lots, up 1702 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, unchanged. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons, down 4663 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,350 tons, up 600 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 24,148 tons, down 2856 tons. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,395 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,385 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 295 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,400 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.79%, up 1.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, up 0.58 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 10.89%, up 0.0091 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, up 0.0267. [2] 3.7行业消息 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has joined the dovish camp, opening the door for a Fed rate cut in September. The market has increased its bets on a US rate cut. Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, listening to a report on the implementation of the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy, and studying opinions on releasing the potential of sports consumption and further promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry. From January to July, the added value of the five major industries mainly involved in the machinery industry increased year - on - year. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3%; the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.8%; the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%; the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.9%; the instrument and meter manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%. The personal consumer loan discount policy will officially start on September 1st. This is the first time that the central government has implemented a discount policy in the field of personal consumer loans. The policy will precisely support the "part used for consumption" in consumer loans. Industry insiders expect that the discount policy will have a great impact on the industry, accelerating the expansion of institutions into various consumption scenarios and better controlling the flow of funds through direct cooperation with merchants. [2]