宏观周报：“哑铃型”资产配置的逻辑-20250825

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a "barbell" asset allocation strategy to achieve stable returns across economic cycles, balancing low-risk assets with high-growth opportunities to mitigate uncertainty and volatility in the capital markets [3][40][46] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by pressure on global fundamentals and uncertainty in economic policies, leading to increased market volatility [3][40] - The report highlights the importance of capturing growth and event-driven market opportunities while providing tail risk protection against uncertainties [3][40] Group 2 - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth momentum, with weak consumer spending and a cooling job market, while the real estate demand is also weakening [2][24] - In China, the Hang Seng Index is experiencing structural market trends, with significant gains in the semiconductor and computer sectors, while the 10-year government bond yield has risen above 1.79% [12][40] - Japan's market is under pressure from trade deficits and a significant drop in exports, with July's export data showing a 2.6% year-on-year decline, the largest since February 2021 [13][40] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut, but uncertainties regarding inflation and employment may disrupt this timeline [14][40] - The report discusses the recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which includes tariff adjustments and commitments to purchase U.S. energy products and AI chips [23][40] - The report indicates that the European economy is showing signs of recovery, with PMI data suggesting a rebound in manufacturing and services [16][23]