螺纹钢产业链日报-20250825

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated strongly. The Fed Chairman's speech strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline while inventory increased as downstream buyers purchased on - demand during the off - season. In the short term, due to the rising expectation of Fed rate cut and the pre - parade production restriction period, steel prices may fluctuate strongly. The 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,138.00 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the open interest was 1,347,830 lots, down 63,773 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 112,560 lots, down 8,361 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 162,206 tons, up 3,573 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Hangzhou (weighed), it was 3,426 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 202.00 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781.00 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,845.20 million tons, up 25.93 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 39.38 million tons, up 0.33 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 609.69 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 116.09 million tons, up 3.57 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03% [2] Industry Situation - The output of rebar of sample steel mills was 214.65 million tons, down 5.80 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 174.53 million tons, up 2.27 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 432.51 million tons, up 17.58 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, down 1.05%. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 939.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,536.00 million square meters, up 285.00 million square meters [2] Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on optimizing real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax policies, which will take effect on August 26, 2025 [2]