苹果产业日报-20250825

Report General Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 25 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The inventory of old - season apples is low, which still supports the price. However, with the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, the price increase rhythm is restricted, showing a range - bound market. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing situation of early - maturing apples [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8141 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 77,654 lots, with an increase of 2,964 lots [2] - The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 1,128 lots, a decrease of 1,128 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commodity) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] - The average wholesale price of apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.07, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.01 [2] - The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 63.284 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1.742602 billion US dollars, a decrease of 212.886 million US dollars [2] - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 5.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg [2] - The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.4 vehicles, an increase of 3.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 22.2 vehicles, an increase of 7.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 4.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.28%, and that of at - the - money put options is 19.28%, an increase of 1.5% [2] Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Gala apple trading in the western production area entered the later stage, with poor overall quality and few high - quality goods, and the actual transaction prices were chaotic [2] - In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples was slow, with fruit farmers and inventory merchants eager to sell, and most transactions were made at discounted prices. The early - maturing Luli and Meiba apples were priced according to quality, and the sales volume was average [2] - On Monday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.63. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] - As of August 20, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons compared with the previous week [2]