棉花（纱）产业日报-20250825

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the weakening US dollar, the price of ICE cotton futures closed higher. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. Although inland spinning mills have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. Overall, the tight supply of old crops and the expectation of improved demand are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the increased production of new cotton. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,120 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 54,544 lots, down 6,028 lots; main contract position of cotton is 504,609 lots, up 19,701 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 7,104 lots, down 94 lots. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,165 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the top 20 net position of cotton yarn futures is - 709 lots, down 329 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,276 lots, up 318 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of cotton yarn is - 8 lots [2]. Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,235 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,297 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,931 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,505 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 857 thousand tons, up 7 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110 thousand tons, unchanged; the profit of imported cotton is 946 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 2,189.8 thousand tons, down 640 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; the monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 11.08%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 11.11%, up 0.59%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.23%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.74%, up 0.05% [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 1.7126 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1435 million tons (a decrease of 7.73%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 0.9842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1477 million tons (a decrease of 13.05%); the commercial cotton in inland areas is 0.4027 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0162 million tons (a decrease of 3.87%). Last Friday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.79%. On Monday, the 2601 contract of cotton closed up 0.75%, and the 2511 contract of cotton yarn closed up 0.45% [2]